When a contract ends, someone wins the next one
The recompete table lists every award whose period of performance ends inside the horizon. The score is our read on how open that next round is likely to be for a small shop.
What goes in
Every award on record with a current end date, or a potential end date including options, that falls between three months ago and the horizon (24 months by default, up to 60 on the Capture plan). Awards with no obligated value are skipped. Contracts already past their end date stay in for three months, because many are extended quietly and the recompete is still coming.
What the score rewards and penalizes
| Signal | Effect | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Ends within 12 months | Up | The buyer is planning the next one now or soon. Sources sought and RFIs tend to appear in this window. |
| Was competed, or two or more offers last time | Up | A buyer that competed it once is likely to compete it again. |
| Small business set-aside last time | Up | The set-aside decision tends to repeat unless the market changed. |
| Options remain beyond the current end date | Down | The buyer can extend without competing. The recompete may be later than the end date suggests. |
| One offer last time | Down | Often a sole source or an approved-source item. Possible, but harder. |
| Very large value | Down | A shop your size is more likely to win a piece as a subcontractor than the prime award. |
| Very small value or a short one-time buy | Down slightly | May not recur at all. |
Scores run from 5 to 99. They are a sorting aid, not a prediction. The signals behind each score are shown on every row.
How to use it
Sort by score, filter to your codes and your buyers, and look at the top of the list a year out. For each one: open the incumbent profile, see how many offers the buyer got last time, check whether the last award was set aside, and read the original award record on USASpending. Then watch the buyer and the code. The sources sought that precedes the recompete is the moment to answer.
The recompete strategy guide walks through the twelve months before the end date.
Related
- What a recompete is and why it mattersThe longer read.
- Recompete radarThe feature that shows the table.
- Entity resolutionWhy the incumbent column can be trusted.
See who was last awarded in your NAICS
The free report shows who bought your part category, who won, and what is coming up for recompete.